“The way to Elfin is found on the pathThat weaves through the Misty ForestThat lives between the Mountain of VisionAnd the River of Reality”

“Good innovators typically think very big and they think very small. New ideas are sometimes found in the most granular details of a problem where few others bother to look. And they are sometimes found when you are doing your most abstract and philosophical thinking, considering why the world is the way that it is and whether there might be an alternative to the dominant paradigm. Rarely can they be found in the temperate latitudes between they two spaces, where we spend 99 percent of our lives.”

“The years rolled slowly by and I found myself alone, surrounded by strangers I thought were my friends, found myslef further and further from my home I guess I lost my way - There were og so many roads.”

“The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.”

“...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.”

“If there is a mutual distrust between the weather forecaster and the public, the public may not listen when they need to most.”

“Shakespeare's plays often turn on the idea of fate, as much drama does. What makes them so tragic is the gap between what his characters might like to accomplish and what fate provides them.”